What we expect from COP27 in Egypt
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What we expect from COP27 in Egypt

On the 6th November, the UN will open its doors for the 27th round of global climate change negotiations at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt. Though there is a momentous amount to be done, including closing the 1.5C emissions gap and mobilising billions of dollars in climate finance, the conference is facing rough political headwinds. The impacts of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on European energy markets have triggered a cost-of-living crisis, resulting in several countries backtracking on climate pledges by re-opening mothballed fossil fuel powerplants. This is exacerbated by the souring of China and US relations, whose bilateral pact brought much-needed momentum to COP26 in Glasgow.

 

Yet, another year of climate extremes, including the most severe flooding in Pakistan’s history, wildfires burning over 600 000 hectares of land in Europe and multiple temperature records broken again, has underlined the crucial importance of making COP27 one of progress. With Africa the host continent, we can expect questions on adaptation and on compensation for damage from physical climate risk to be a major theme of discussions.

 

Here we outline some of the main questions ahead of the negotiations, underling where we think progress may be made. 

Can COP27 close the 1.5C emissions gap?
Can an agreement on a finance mechanism for loss and damage finally be reached?
Will the first African COP since 2016 shine a new light on the need for adaptation finance?
Will climate mitigation finance realities finally align with expectations?
Will momentum from COP26 on carbon markets continue?
i https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021
ii https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/997/CAT_2021-11-09_Briefing_Global-Update_Glasgow2030CredibilityGap.pdf
iii https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact-key-outcomes-from-cop26
iv https://www.climatewatchdata.org/2020-ndc-tracker
v https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/25/egypt-climate-finance-top-of-agenda-cop27-talks
vi https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-raises-emissions-cutting-target-2030-2022-06-16/
vii https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/glasgow-dialogue-on-loss-and-damage/
viii https://climatechangenews.com/2022/09/20/denmark-first-country-pledge-loss-and-damage-finance/
ix https://oecd-development-matters.org/2022/01/25/why-cop26-failed-to-address-loss-and-damage-from-climate-change/
xhttps://e360.yale.edu/features/cop27-un-climate-conference-egypt-loss-and-damage
xi https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/10/24/council-sets-out-eu-position-for-un-climate-summit-in-sharm-el-sheikh-cop27/
xii https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/02/24/us-seeks-to-remove-losses-and-damages-from-scientific-report-on-climate-impacts/#:~:text=The%20US%20is%20pushing%20back,have%20told%20Climate%20Home%20News.
xiii https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2022-06/20976iied.pdf
xiv https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02761-1
xv https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm
xvi https://www.wri.org/insights/can-global-goal-adaptation-be-locally-led
xvii https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/07/29/rich-countries-fall-17bn-short-of-2020-climate-goal/
xviii https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621066/bp-climate-finance-shadow-report-2020-201020-en.pdf
xix https://ecf3.apms5.com/anywhere/m?s=ecf3&m=s_269fab73-2b26-449d-a9d3-
20c3c2ed2aa9&u=e1jq4wvfdtfm2ha564t3adj15mrmadtk5mu44c1n5n142dhp5n24ah2
18h1mahj460rkj&r2=d1u78w3k78qjyxvqewq6cx1ecdqpubv3dxq78tbeegqp2dk56mvpcc
b35mr30db15mu3jtk15ngk4e9n5mr32rtj69gp4r9r6rt62&n=37
xx https://ecf3.apms5.com/anywhere/m?s=ecf3&m=s_269fab73-2b26-449d-a9d3-
20c3c2ed2aa9&u=e1jq4wvfdtfm2ha564t3adj15mrmadtk5mu44c1n5n142dhp5n24ah2
18h1mahj460rkj&r2=d1u78w3k78qjyrv1e9q6atv9cnjpwt3fexppavkm5tqq4ttf68r34chf60
wjychr5xtpyxbmd0pp2tkjd5hp2bbk5nn7awvm5njpwtbjcxwjux3jc5q76ubmd5qpwbbgc5t78
vk5e9tpgubg5nppyt35dgppcvvj5nhprubdc5u6abb6d5q62vk3d5q6ebb6dxt2urb6e9mp6r
9dcnv6avkm5mvkjd1r&n=33
xxi https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/negotiations-carbon-credits-expected-continue-cop27
1 november 2022
Joe Horrocks-Taylor
Joe Horrocks-Taylor
Senior Associate, Analyst, Responsible Investment
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What we expect from COP27 in Egypt

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Important information

© 2022 Columbia Threadneedle Investments

For professional investors.

For marketing purposes. Your capital is at risk. Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
Not all services, products and strategies are offered by all entities of the group. Awards or ratings may not apply to all entities of the group.

This material should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, advice, or an investment recommendation. This communication is valid at the date of publication and may be subject to change without notice. Information from external sources is considered reliable but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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